Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages pdf

Learn how to make chance-informed decisions with this groundbreaking new book from the author of The Flaw of Averages.

In his popular book The Flaw of Averages, author Sam L. Savage described common avoidable mistakes made when assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. In this book, he explains how to fix the Flaw of Averages through Chancification, a revolutionary approach for making chance-informed decisions. Just as electrification replaces technologies using fossil fuels with those using electricity, Chancification replaces computations based on deterministic numbers with those based on probabilities. And just as non-experts can illuminate light bulbs with electricity generated by power engineers, Chancification allows everyday managers (even those suffering from Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder, or PTSD) to illuminate the chances of success or failure of their projects based on vetted, auditable estimates generated by statisticians and data scientists.

Topics include:

• Curing Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD) with Limbic Analytics, which connects the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.
• Downloadable examples of how to fix the Flaw of Averages in Excel.
• The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: Arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z. The Arithmetic of Uncertainty ask what you want Z to be, then estimates the chances.
• Speaking Uncertainty to Power: Clear explanations can earn you the permission to be uncertain.
• The Technology of Chancification, including the SIPmath™ Standard from ProbabilityManagement.org, based on Doug Hubbard’s portable random number generator and Tom Keelin’s breakthrough Metalog distribution.