Risk Analysis: Quantitative Method, Countermeasures and Mitigation — U.S. Edition pdf

Risk is not a feeling. It is threat, vulnerability and consequence — measured.

Most security decisions are made on instinct, on budget, or on whatever technology was pitched last. Risk Analysis replaces that with a method: a systematic, quantitative process that tells a manager what could go wrong, how likely it is, what it would cost, and which countermeasure buys the most protection per dollar.

Written by a former U.S. Marine and Pima County sheriff's detective who went on to lead corporate security programs, this book walks the analyst through the whole chain:

• The threat — the five factors that score any threat, from existence to targeting; design-basis threats; terrorism and weapons of mass destruction; theft, sabotage, human error and environmental disruption
• The assessment — the five steps of risk analysis, the cost of an adverse event, resilience, and the definitions that keep asset, threat, vulnerability and risk from being confused
• Vulnerability — seven factors rated 0 to 5, from visibility to collateral casualties, with the complete vulnerability assessment worksheet and scoring key
• Risk — R = T x V x C, the risk assessment matrix, the risk management model, operational, legal, information and reputation risk, and the worst natural and man-made disasters as case studies
• Countermeasures — business continuity, mutual aid, consequence categories, preparedness exercises, and the emergency action plan component by component
• Mitigation through environmental design — the six strategies of crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED), from territoriality to target hardening

U.S. Edition: worksheets, matrices and scoring tables rebuilt in English; distances, temperatures and areas in U.S. units; facts checked against their sources.

For security managers, risk analysts, consultants, facility executives — and for anyone preparing for the ASIS CPP or PSP who needs the arithmetic of risk, not just the vocabulary.

Book 1 of the SECURITY EXPERT series by A. Hertzog.